AML Playoffs Round 2 Predictions
I went an impressive 2-3 in round 1 last Sunday. The two I got right were the obvious Llamasery over Fly-NDeath and the equally obvious (to me) NightBane over ElementalForces, although for different reasons than I expected.
The three I got wrong were SFE over BlackNike, which was the most surprising result of the round for me, not so much for SFE winning, but the manner of their victory. I expected BN's pace to push SFE back and when they subbed in their lower ranked players for reps for them to overwhelm them. Instead the opposite happened. The score was tight through the match and BN seemed to have the advantage, but SFE took over after the subs.
In the other two games I got wrong I got my upsets crossed. After the build-up I gave Warlords last week, including making them my most improved team of season, I still picked Disavowed for the win. I forgot about Dis' usual early round 1 exit in the playoffs when they're favourites and that's exactly what happened. The other game was Secret against CtrlShift, which was the game I did call the upset in, but in the end CS held on for an 8-7 squeaker after leading and looking comfortable at 6-3 and 8-4.
The highest rated player of the round was taffee who racked up +141 while going 4-0 with 2 KO's in leading Warlords to their upset over Dis. The LVP went to EF's Empower who rocketed his way to a dismal -301 MR Rating and an 0-3 record.
So here's the Vorbometer predictions for round two of the playoffs, which this week are brought to you by the VW Polo, small but tough.
$$$ Game of the Week $$$
The playoffs really start here. Both of these teams have what it takes to win the title, but one of them is going to get knocked out on Sunday. Both these teams suffered unexpected losses last week and both of them will be looking to make a statement here. Hell, I'll go farther than that; the winner of this match is going to win the championship. Who wins this game will be the team that can put their round 1 performance behind them and both teams have some baggage after what happened.
With EF I think the problem last week was that Sky0ne wasn't at the match. Against NB they looked disorganised. If you look at the box score then the choker of the match is obvious, it's Empower. In fact the real choker of the game was DarkDisparage on NightBane. I specced him for most of the game and he had a real mare of a match. His aim was totally off and he was redlining a lot. After a NB kill to start the match it was no surprise the next two kills were both on DD. But here's where EF lost it. The call to target DD obviously came from the players in the game, not from spec and they just opened up on him. Empower rocketed the shit out of him and all DD had to was backarrow and drop the odd bomb in his path. The next three kills were all on Empower and that was the game. DD ended up being the MVP.
BN's loss was completely different. The game was going completely to plan, for both teams. BN were hitting SFE hard, pushing them back and burning their specials. SFE were keeping their shape, not offering any obvious targets to BN and subbing for specials when needed. At the 28 minute mark the score was 5-5 and with Mauler and The Deist subbed out for MfA and Raspi things were looking in BN's favour, but SFE went on a three kill streak and although there was still five minutes left and the match was still 4v4 BN panicked and started to hit SFE as though it was the last minute of the game. They rocketed around the map, crossed their targets and blew any real chance they had in getting back into the game. BN did get two kills back, but the last kill went to SFE for a 9-7 win. The surprising thing for me here was how SFE used their tight slow-it-down style not to slow down BN to their pace, but to actually speed them up more and force errors at crunch times. Normally teams that play like SFE are pushed back hard and split up by BN's relentless pressure until they give up easy targets, but last Sunday it didn't work.
So who's going to bounce back Sunday? Logic says EF. They have players like Vezuvan and Rump Roast that they could throw into the game and I'd expect Sky0ne and Freakmonger to be there this time to control things, but I'm going to be unashamedly biased here and pick BlackNike and I'm doing it for one simple reason. For as long as I've known and played with BN (IML excluded) they've never had back-to-back bad games.
Vorbometer: 6-4 BlackNike
Key Players: Joe Bane (BN), Iron Hands (EF)
Watch out for: DK realising that this is the first time I haven't picked him to choke in a big game, which probably means he is going to choke.
>.< Complete Mental Breakdown of the Week >.<
I don't know why I'm even bothering to type analysis for this game. FnD were seriously found out last Sunday by llamas. Even if FnD didn't have any lag problems the result and the score would have been the same. ZDX had zero support and FnD were bitch slapped 12-1 and the exact same thing is going to happen this Sunday. FnD are a one-man team and that is not going to get you wins in the playoffs
Vorbometer: 12-0 StarFire Elite
Key Players: Divine, Mauler (SFE)
Watch out for: ZDX finally going bipolar as he gets chased 1v4 by SFE all over the map only 20 minutes into the game. Total meltdown, it's been coming all season.
Let's not go with all the happy crappy stuff about how WL's and llamas are such friends. Llamas' are going to run over Warlords here like roadkill and not look back. Warlords may be set up as the upset team of the playoffs (set up by me actually), but llamas' are built so you can't really get an upset out of them. They play so slow and deliberately it's hard to force a choke and you're not going to get them to play in another style to force the mistakes, and besides Warlords aren't built like that either. They're another grind em down style squad. For Warlords to beat llamas they'd have to play like SFE did against against BlackNike last weekend, but they don't have either the individual skill or depth to pull that off.
The only chance Warlords have is if llamas get caught looking ahead to round 3 where they play the winners of the EF/BN game. But considering the season they've had do you think that they're going to be worried who they play next week? Of course not and there goes Warlords last chance. Bye Miz.
Vorbometer: 12-5 Llamasery
Key Players: Perceptor (llamas) Taffee (WL)
Watch out for: Demi back in effect next season
I think NightBane are the favourites in this match, but as I've already said they were very very lucky to come out with a win last week and they're not playing like favourites. Any half way organised team would of beat them last week and if you're looking for a half way organised team then you can't get much better than CtrlShift.
CS are right now in just enough mode. They did just enough to make the playoffs, they did just enough to beat Secret and this weekend they'll do just enough to beat Nightbane and then go on to do just enough against SFE which may or may not be enough, but this is about round two and when we're talking about NB just enough is plenty enough, enough for me to say it's enough anyway.
Vorbometer: 12-10 CtrlShift
Key Players: twIsta (NB), Big Bacon Classic (CS)
Watch out for: Me having enough
posted by CelebPixx
